On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction     

Joëlle Gergis  Ailie Jane Eyre Gallant  Karl Braganza  David John Karoly  Kathryn Allen  Louise Cullen  Rosanne D’Arrigo  Ian Goodwin  Pauline Grierson  Shayne McGregor 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):923-944

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.  相似文献   

Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief     

Oldrich Hungr  Scott McDougall  Mike Wise  Michael Cullen 《Geomorphology》2008,96(3-4):355

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.  相似文献   

Simulation of the subsurface mobility of carbon nanoparticles at the field scale     

Erin Cullen  Denis M. O’Carroll  Ernest K. Yanful  Brent Sleep 《Advances in water resources》2010

The production and use of nanomaterials will inevitably lead to their disposal in the natural environment. To assess the risk that these materials pose to human and ecosystem health an understanding of their mobility and ultimate fate is essential. To date, however, relatively little research has been conducted on the fate of nanoparticles in subsurface systems. In this study the subsurface mobility of two carbon nanoparticles: nano-fullerenes (nC₆₀) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) is assessed. A two-dimensional finite element model was used to simulate the movement of these nanoparticles under a range of hydrologic and geological conditions, including a heterogeneous permeability field. The numerical model is based on colloid filtration theory (CFT) with a maximum retention capacity term. For the conditions evaluated the carbon nanotubes are much more mobile than nC₆₀ due to the smaller collector efficiency associated with carbon nanotubes. However, the mobility of nC₆₀ increased significantly when a maximum retention capacity term was included in the model. Model results also demonstrate that, for the systems examined, nanoparticles were predicted to be less mobile in heterogeneous systems compared to the homogeneous systems with the same average hydraulic properties.  相似文献   

Morphology of riffle–pool sequences in the River Severn,England     

Paul A. Carling  Harriet G. Orr 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2000,25(4):369-384

Despite the occurrence of riffle–pool sequences in many rivers there are few data concerning riffle–pool unit morphology. Of many criteria proposed to identify riffle–pool units, only three methods can be regarded as objective and robust. These are the ‘zero‐crossing’, the ‘spectral analysis’ and the ‘control‐point’ methods. In this paper statistics are developed using the first two of these methods to describe the streamwise morphology of 275 riffles and 285 pools which form a continuous 32·1 km reach of the bed of the River Severn in Shropshire, England. Yalin's theoretical relationship between the average riffle:pool unit length ( λ _p) and channel width ( W ), λ _p = 3 W , applies to the River Severn. Reach‐average riffle height ( H ) is a constant proportion of bankfull depth ( h ); typically H ≅ 0·16 h . Riffle height is a positive function of riffle length. Pool depth is a positive function of pool length. However, both riffle length and pool length increase more rapidly than the bed‐level amplitude, such that long riffles or pools are relatively ‘flat’. As channel gradient reduces, bedforms flatten and become more asymmetric as riffle stoss sides and the proximal slope of pools lengthen at the expense of riffle lee sides and pool distal slopes. The statistical relationships between riffle steepness (H/L) and water depth are similar to those for equilibrium subaqueous dunes. The Severn data are consistent with Yalin's theoretical analysis relating riffle bedform length (L _r) to water depth, i.e. L _r = α2π h, wherein α ≅ 1 for steep near‐equilibrium bedforms but α ≅ 2 to 3 as the relative depth decreases and riffles become long, low features. Theoretical consideration and turbulence data indicate that the frequency of coherent turbulent‐flow structures associated with the riffle–pool mixing length in the Severn should be of the order of 50 to 100 s. The morphological similarity of the steepest River Severn riffles with dunes raises intriguing questions with respect to self‐similar, convergent organization of periodic alluvial bedforms and to bedform dynamic classification particularly. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multi-decadal scale variability in autumn-winter rainfall in south-western Australia since 1655 AD as reconstructed from tree rings of Callitris columellaris   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Louise E. Cullen  Pauline F. Grierson 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(2-3):433-444

We present the first tree-ring based reconstruction of rainfall for the Lake Tay region of southern Western Australia. We examined the response of Callitris columellaris to rainfall, the southern oscillation index (SOI), the southern annular mode (SAM) and surface sea temperature (SST) anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean. The 350-year chronology was most strongly correlated with rainfall averaged over the autumn-winter period (March–September; r = ?0.70, P < 0.05) and SOI values averaged over June–August (r = 0.25, P < 0.05). The chronology was not correlated with SAM or SSTs. We reconstructed autumn-winter rainfall back to 1655, where current and previous year tree-ring indices explained 54% of variation in rainfall over the 1902–2005 calibration period. Some variability in rainfall was lost during the reconstruction: variability of actual rainfall (expressed as normalized values) over the calibration period was 0.78, while variability of the normalized reconstructed values over the same period was 0.44. Nevertheless, the reconstruction, combined with spectral analysis, revealed that rainfall naturally varies from relatively dry periods lasting to 20–30 years to 15-year long periods of above average rainfall. This variability in rainfall may reflect low-frequency variation in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation rather than the effect of SAM or SSTs.  相似文献   

Silver in the subarctic northeast Pacific Ocean: Explaining the basin scale distribution of silver     

Dennis Kramer  Jay T. Cullen  James R. Christian  W. Keith Johnson  Thomas F. Pedersen 《Marine Chemistry》2011,123(1-4):133-142

Five vertical profiles of silver (Ag) in the subarctic northeast Pacific are presented. Dissolved (< 0.2 μm) Ag concentrations within the surface mixed layer range from 6–25 pM, with the highest observed values at the most coastal site. Elevated Ag concentrations at this station are most likely attributable to the estuarine circulation in the Juan de Fuca Strait. One open-ocean station (P20) exhibited a strong surface Ag maximum. The station was located at the edge of a Haida eddy which raises the possibility that such eddies transport Ag seaward from the coastal zone. Ag concentrations in the deep waters ranged from 60–80 pM. These measurements are consistent with other recent Ag data collected in the Pacific. Ag profiles throughout the Pacific Ocean yield a strong positive correlation between Ag concentration and dissolved silicic acid concentration. However, Ag is depleted relative to silicic acid at intermediate depths where dissolved O₂ concentrations are low, implying a possible removal of Ag from oxygen-depleted waters by scavenging and/or precipitation.  相似文献   

A late Wisconsin and Holocene vegetation history from the central brooks range: Implications for Alaskan palaeoecology     

Linda B. Brubaker  Harriet L. Garfinkee  Mary E. Edwards 《Quaternary Research》1983,20(2):194-214

Five pollen diagrams reveal late Wisconsin and Holocene vegetation changes in the Walker Lake/Alatna Valley region of the central Brooks Range, approximately 100 km west of the area studied by D. A. Livingstone (1955, Ecology36, 587–600). New insights into the vegetation history of this region are provided by calculations of pollen influx and by the use of linear discriminant analysis to separate Picea glauca and P. mariana pollen. Three major pollen zones are identified: (1) a basal herb zone, characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae, Gramineae, Salix, and Artemisia, and low total pollen influx; (2) a shrub Betula zone with increased total pollen influx and very high percentages of Betula pollen, predominantly in the size range of B. nana and B. glandulosa; and (3) and Alnus zone dominated by Alnus pollen. Lakes currently within the boreal forest or near tree line show relatively high percentages of Picea pollen in the Alnus zone. Several striking vegetation changes occurred between ca. 10,000 and 7000 yr B.P. Between ca. 11,000 and 10,000 yr B.P., Populus balsamifera pollen percentages as great as 30% indicate that this species was present at low-elevation sites near Walker Lake. These populations declined abruptly ca. 10,000 yr ago and have never regained prominence. About 8500 yr B.P., Picea glauca pollen reached 10–15%, indicating the arrival of P. glauca in or near the study area. P. glauca populations evidently decreased ca. 8000 yr ago, when Picea pollen percentages and influx fell to low values. About 7000 yr B.P., Alnus pollen percentages and influx rose sharply as alder shrubs became established widely. Picea once more expanded ca. 5000 yr ago, but these populations were dominated by P. mariana rather than P. glauca, which increased slowly at this time and may still be advancing northward. Some vegetation changes have been remarkably synchronous over wide areas of interior Alaska, and probably reflect responses of in situ vegetation to environmental changes, but others may reflect the lagged responses of species migrating into new areas.  相似文献   

The occurrence of distal Icelandic and Italian tephra in the Lateglacial of Lake Bled,Slovenia     

Christine S. Lane  Maja Andrič  Victoria L. Cullen  Simon P.E. Blockley 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(9-10):1013-1018

The discovery of sites preserving tephra layers from multiple volcanic centres is key to constructing a single European tephrostratigraphic framework for the Late Quaternary. Until now, the tephrostratigraphy of Europe has been divided into two halves: sites in the North Atlantic and northern Europe regions link the Icelandic, Eifel, and the Massif Central volcanic histories; whilst sites in southern Europe record the sequence of tephra layers produced by circum-Mediterranean volcanic provinces. The missing link, able to tie together these two halves, is found in the tephrostratigraphic record of Lake Bled, Slovenia.Lake Bled, in the Julian Alps, Slovenia, holds a high resolution multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental archive for the Lateglacial of south-central Europe. Cryptotephra investigations have revealed three tephra layers: two closely spaced within Younger Dryas stadial sediments and one shortly after the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial warming. Two of the tephra layers (Bld_T120 and Bld_T240) are of Campanian origin and are correlated to deposits of the Pomici Principali (PP) and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT) eruptions, respectively. The third layer (Bld_T122) correlates to the Icelandic Vedde Ash (VA), extending the known fallout of this widespread marker layer farther to the southeast.The Lake Bled record also allows the stratigraphic relationship and relative ages of the VA and the PP eruption to be discerned for the first time. Whilst existing numerical age estimates for these two deposits are indistinguishable within errors, their close occurrence in the same lacustrine sediment sequence shows that the VA was erupted shortly prior to the PP eruption.The tephrostratigraphy of Lake Bled developed here helps us to tie together regional volcanic stratigraphies into a broader, continental-scale lattice of sites, with the potential to allow the transfer of dates between remote sequences and the construction of relative chronologies, beneficial in particular for environmental and archaeological research.  相似文献   

Oceanic–atmospheric modes of variability and their influence on riverine input to coastal Louisiana and Mississippi     

Guillermo Sanchez-Rubio  Harriet M. Perry  Patricia M. Biesiot  Donald R. Johnson  Romuald N. Lipcius 《Journal of Hydrology》2011,396(1-2):72-81

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Systematic errors in weak lensing: application to SDSS galaxy–galaxy weak lensing     

Rachel Mandelbaum  Christopher M. Hirata  Uro&#; Seljak  Jacek Guzik  Nikhil Padmanabhan  Cullen Blake  Michael R. Blanton  Robert Lupton  Jonathan Brinkmann 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,361(4):1287-1322

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